“An analogy is that Peet’s coffee shop might have a negative effect on Starbucks, but the competition might be better for the economy overall,” Clemens says. Michael Clemens, an economist at the Center for Global Development, a think tank in Washington DC, says the analysis is a departure from some previous work because it focuses on big-picture impacts, rather than specific elements in an economy - such as the effect that immigrants have on local wages. Unlike migrants, people seeking refuge often face restrictions on working, and must move to another country if their applications for permanent residency are denied. The study showed this economic activity far outweighs governmental costs of newcomers - that may be partly explained by the fact that immigrants tend to be young and middle-aged adults who are less reliant on state benefits than are older people, says d’Albis.Īsylum seekers also benefit economies, but their effects take longer to transpire - from three to seven years - and the boon is less obvious. Those effects are likely down to migrants increasing market demand, providing services, adding jobs and paying taxes. The model suggests that within two years of an influx of migrants, unemployment rates drop significantly and economic health increases (see ‘The economics of migration’). They also calculated a variable called fiscal balance, which subtracts the amount of money a country spent on public programmes, such as welfare, from the amount of money raised through taxes. To assess nations’ economic well-being, the researchers measured average incomes over the years by dividing a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by the size of its population. The analysis examined conditions from 1985 to 2015 in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Iceland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Portugal and the United Kingdom. Many of the asylum seekers included in the study were those who fled the war in the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and those who have come more recently from Syria. The researchers looked separately at the effects of migrants - who are legally allowed to settle in a country - and asylum seekers who reside temporarily in a nation while their applications for refugee status are processed. In this case, the events were influxes of immigrants. “But we have shown that historically it has not been a cost, and that if you do not welcome immigrants, the economy might be worse off.”ĭ’Albis and his team relied on a mathematical model that uses yearly economic indicators to make predictions about the future following major shocks, such as natural disasters. “Some people say they would like to welcome refugees, but that we cannot afford it,” says Hippolyte d’Albis, an economist at the Paris School of Economics, CNRS, who led the work. The study was published 1 in Science Advances on 20 June. Its conclusions contradict the idea that refugees place an excessive financial burden on a country by sucking up public resources. Quarterly economic activity within the countries of the UK (England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) and the nine English regions (North East, North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, and South West).The study finds that soon after a spike in migration, the overall strength and sustainability of the country’s economy improves and unemployment rates drop. GDP, UK regions and countries: July to September 2021 Contains current and constant price data on the value of goods and services to indicate the economic performance of the UK.īusiness investment in the UK: January to March 2022 provisional resultsĮstimates of short-term indicators of investment in non-financial assets, business investment and asset and sector breakdowns of total gross fixed capital formation.
GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: January to March 2022įirst quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). It estimates the size of and growth in the economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced in the UK. Uses additional data to provide a more precise indication of economic growth than the first estimate. Revised quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK. GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: October to December 2021 Publications related to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Statistical bulletins